Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting
This regrant will support the creation of the Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, including salary for a director and a team of expert forecasters. They will forecast trends from Our World in Data charts, as well as other topics related to ensuring the long term future goes well, with a particular focus on explaining the “why” of forecast estimates.
University of Toronto, Social Science Prediction Platform
This regrant will fund one year of operations for the Social Science Prediction Platform, a platform which allows economists and other social science academics to use forecasting in their research.
This regrant will support a teaching buyout to allow Yan to focus on forecasting AGI scenarios, as well as research on beneficial alignment and deployment.
The Confido Institute is working on developing a user-friendly interactive app, Confido, for making forecasts and communicating beliefs and uncertainty within groups and organizations. They are also building interactive educational programs about forecasting and working with uncertainty based around this app.
J. Peter Scoblic
This regrant will support QURI to develop a programming language called "Squiggle" as a tool for probabilistic estimation. The hope is this will be a useful tool for forecasting and fermi estimates.
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